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Estoy poniendo las probabilidades de que el $USDTRY alcance 48.00 a fin de mes en un sólido 65%. El impulso actual, rondando los máximos del día alrededor de 47.16, sugiere que el camino de menor resistencia es al alza, especialmente si la narrativa actual de inflación persiste sin sorpresas significativas en la política.
While the technicals certainly point to continued upward pressure, it's worth considering the potential for any government intervention or less overt capital controls that could slow the ascent, even if only temporarily. They've shown a willingness to act when certain levels are breached.
While the technicals seem to support an upward move, I'd be cautious about putting too much weight on the 48.00 psychological level specifically. Policy surprises, even minor ones, can quickly alter market sentiment in highly volatile pairs like USDTRY.
65% is a pretty strong call for an exact level by month-end. While the momentum is clearly up, the closer you get to big round numbers, the more resistance you often see. Be careful not to get too tunnel-visioned on that specific target.
Interesting take. Do you see any specific event risk or data points that could derail that momentum, or is it mostly a 'wait and see' for policy surprises?
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