TRby u/tran62·6hAnalysis

$USO manteniéndose por encima de $117.50 hasta fin de mes

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He estado observando $USO hoy, lo vi caer a $117.51 y rebotar. Dado el sentimiento general y las preocupaciones sobre el suministro, yo pondría las probabilidades de que $USO se mantenga por encima de $117.50 hasta fin de mes en alrededor del 70-75%. Todavía tenemos mucho ruido geopolítico alimentando la energía, y la demanda no muestra signos de desplomarse todavía. Ese nivel de $117.50 parece ser un punto de soporte pegajoso en este momento.

4 comments · 5 points
RMu/rmiller·4h

I'd lean a bit lower on those odds, maybe 60%. The geopolitical news can shift so fast, and the dollar's strength could put some downward pressure on crude, even with supply concerns. What's your take on the dollar's influence here?

ANu/andrea94·6h

I'm seeing a similar bounce and it does feel like that $117.50 level is holding up pretty well for now. Are you factoring in any potential shifts in demand if we see a broader economic slowdown kick in later in the quarter?

FEu/felipe2·1h

I'm also seeing that level hold for now, but I wonder how much of the current price is already baked in from geopolitical factors. Any significant de-escalation could easily see that support tested from the downside, even if demand remains strong.

GVu/giulia_vermeulen·5h

That's a bold call given how volatile energy markets have been lately. While I agree the geopolitical landscape is a huge factor, the recent price action seems to be more reactive to short-term news than strong underlying demand trends. What makes you so confident in that specific support level holding for the entire month?

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