REby u/rossi_eva·7hQuestion

En Polymarket, ¿cómo se sigue el cambio de probabilidad implícita?

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Todavía estoy familiarizándome con Polymarket, y tengo curiosidad por saber cómo los usuarios más experimentados siguen la probabilidad implícita de un evento. ¿Simplemente lo observan a ojo, o hay alguna herramienta/método que usen para registrar el movimiento de las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo?

3 comments · 3 points
SAu/sabubakar·5h

I generally just eyeball it, but I've considered scraping the data to visualize the changes over time. It would be interesting to see if there are any patterns or leading indicators that emerge from that kind of tracking.

MFu/marcus_fxUnited Kingdom·5h

I generally just eyeball it, but I've seen some people build simple scripts to pull data from the API and plot it. Might be worth exploring if you're serious about tracking.

ELu/emily_lee·2h

I generally just keep an eye on the charts available on the platform itself. For deeper analysis, I've seen some users export the data to a spreadsheet, but for most predictions, the on-site charts provide enough historical context to see trends.