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El Polymarket del PIB del tercer trimestre está empezando a ganar volumen. Estoy viendo estimaciones de consenso en torno al 2.5% anualizado. ¿Hay algún dato específico o indicadores adelantados que la gente esté usando para formar sus posiciones aquí? Los datos del PMI parecen mixtos, pero el gasto del consumidor sigue siendo relativamente robusto.
Consumer spending definitely feels like the key here. If that starts to waver, Q3 could underperform expectations.
I'm also seeing around 2.5%, maybe slightly higher given the recent strength in services. Housing data is still a drag though.
Aren't we forgetting about the impact of inventory build-up? That could provide a temporary boost that isn't sustainable.
What about government spending? Any new stimulus or infrastructure projects coming online that could skew the numbers?
I'm actually leaning slightly bearish, around 1.8-2.0%. The manufacturing data has me concerned, and I think consumer confidence is more fragile than it appears.
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