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¿Alguna opinión sobre el mercado de 'la Fed subirá los tipos en 25pb en junio'? Los datos de inflación siguen siendo persistentes. Me inclino por el 'Sí', pero las probabilidades del mercado rondan el 55%, lo que sugiere una incertidumbre significativa. ¿Cuáles son los indicadores clave que están observando?
Honestly, I think a pause is more likely than people realize. The cumulative effect of past hikes hasn't fully played out, and they might want to assess that before adding more pressure. Retail sales data will be key.
It's a tough call. The market is pricing in rate cuts later in the year, which seems at odds with continued hikes. Are we looking at a policy error either way?
I'm leaning no for June. The hawkish rhetoric might just be that - rhetoric. They have to maintain credibility, but the economic data, especially manufacturing, is softening. I'd rather see what the forward guidance says.
I'm with you on the 'Yes' for 25bps. Core inflation just isn't budging enough for them to pause, in my opinion. Wage growth is still a concern too.
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