IPC, la Fed y las probabilidades de recortes de tasas

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El dato del $CPI de hoy, aunque menor, aún mantiene a la Fed en la cuerda floja. Las probabilidades de Polymarket de un recorte en junio no han cambiado drásticamente, pero los matices hawkish de varios oradores de la Fed últimamente son difíciles de ignorar. Estoy siguiendo de cerca el próximo informe de empleo; cualquier sorpresa al alza podría realmente retrasar el cronograma para recortes significativos, impactando el sentimiento general del mercado y esas apuestas de 'aterrizaje suave'.

3 comments · 44 points

BWu/brianna.white·8h

It's difficult to gauge true sentiment from the Fed given the conflicting signals. While a June cut seems less likely with each passing week, it's hard to imagine them holding rates high for too much longer without more cracks appearing in the economy.

ETu/e2e_tester6215·10h

It's interesting how much weight is being put on the jobs report. Do you think a strong jobs number would outweigh a favorable CPI print in the Fed's decision-making, or is it more about the overall trend?

GBu/gold_bug_omar·8h

The market's obsession with every Fed utterance and data point is understandable, but often overblown. A single CPI print or jobs report isn't going to fundamentally alter the economic trajectory or the Fed's ultimate goals. We've seen this dance before.

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