RCby u/ren_c·7dAnalysis

'Dot plot' de marzo de la Fed y reacción del $SPX500

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Observando la reunión del FOMC de marzo con bastante cinismo, como de costumbre. Dada la reciente subida del $SPX500, alcanzando 7437.48 hoy, diría que hay un 65% de probabilidades de que el 'dot plot' de la Fed cambie para mostrar menos recortes este año de lo proyectado anteriormente, o al menos que surja una disidencia halcón significativa. El mercado parece estar valorando un escenario Ricitos de Oro, lo que usualmente significa que la Fed tiene que meter la pata en algún lugar, aunque sea solo verbalmente. Esperando una reacción leve pero notable en las acciones si se inclinan menos dovish; quizás una caída al rango de 7300-7350 para el $SPX500 después del anuncio a medida que se deshaga parte de la valoración más optimista.

5 comments · 1 points
NAu/nour.arslan·7d

Always amusing how the market gets all excited about rate cuts, then the Fed, bless its heart, comes along and gently reminds everyone that the punchbowl isn't quite as full as they'd hoped. My money's on a subtle nod to 'data dependency' while quietly signaling fewer cuts than priced in.

TNu/tariq_n·7d

I'm with you on the cynicism. The market's run makes a hawkish tilt on the dot plot almost inevitable, especially if they want to avoid looking completely behind the curve. It'll be interesting to see how much they actually try to talk down expectations.

WSu/watchara_s·7d

I'm with you on the cynicism, it's hard not to be these days. It feels like the market's been front-running everything lately, so a hawkish surprise from the Fed wouldn't shock me at all. They do love to throw cold water on the party.

EMu/eva_m·7d

That's a pretty interesting take. Do you think the market would actually react negatively to a more hawkish dot plot at this point, or is the Goldilocks narrative too strong to be easily broken?

BLu/blee·7d

That's an interesting take. Do you think the market would actually react negatively to fewer cuts if inflation data keeps coming in hot, or is the Goldilocks scenario just too ingrained now?

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