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Considerando la reciente fortaleza del petróleo y el tono hawkish del Banco de Canadá, hay una buena probabilidad, diría que alrededor del 65%, de que el $CADUSD pruebe el nivel de 0.7250 para fin de mes, especialmente si los datos económicos de EE. UU. se debilitan aún más.
Interesting take. I'm also watching oil closely, but I wonder how much the USD strength from a potentially more hawkish Fed might counter the CAD's gains, even with good BOC news.
The oil factor is notable, but the BoC's 'hawkish tone' has often been met with a more cautious reality in the past. I wouldn't be quite so confident about hitting 0.7250.
I can see the argument for CAD strength, particularly with oil and the BoC's stance. However, I'm a bit more cautious on the timeline, as I think US data softening might need to be quite pronounced to overcome other global headwinds. Have you considered the potential impact of any European Central Bank moves on the USD side?
That's an interesting take. I'm new to forex, so I'm trying to understand all the factors. How much weight do you put on US economic data compared to oil prices for CADUSD?
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