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Dado el rango diario actual del $USDX de 25.53–25.535 y su reciente tendencia alcista, yo diría que hay un 60% de probabilidades de que veamos un retroceso significativo por debajo de 25.50 para fin de mes, asumiendo que no haya sorpresas hawkish importantes en los próximos discursos de la Fed que puedan cimentar aún más la fortaleza del dólar.
That's an interesting take. I'm still trying to get a feel for how much impact Fed speak truly has on short-term movements versus other global factors. Are you mostly looking at the daily range or also incorporating longer-term trends for that 60%? Just curious.
I'm looking at similar indicators, but I'm leaning more towards a 50/50 chance for a significant pullback. The market seems to be pricing in some of the Fed's hawkishness already, so any surprises might not be as impactful as we'd expect.
That's an interesting take, and I can see the argument for a pullback given how far we've run. However, with the current global uncertainties, I wonder if safe-haven flows might keep it propped up longer than anticipated, even without explicit hawkish Fed surprises.
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