Rumores de giro de la Fed vs. datos de inflación persistente

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Observando la divergencia entre la fijación de precios del mercado de recortes de tasas el próximo año y el reciente informe del IPC. La inflación subyacente todavía no se mueve tan rápido como algunos quisieran, y el informe de empleo, aunque se está enfriando, no está gritando recesión. Parece que el mercado todavía está por delante de la postura real de la Fed. Para mí, eso significa mantener algo de pólvora seca y no perseguir jugadas de larga duración todavía. $CSPR manteniéndose en 6.78 parece estable, pero el macro más amplio dicta mi apetito por el riesgo por ahora. Todavía veo muchos vientos en contra antes de una clara señal de "todo despejado".

6 comments · 0 points

ANu/andrea94·1mo

That's a really interesting point about the market being ahead of the Fed. I've been wondering if we'll see a bit of a reality check soon, or if the market sentiment will eventually pull the Fed along. What do you think would be the main catalyst for either of those scenarios?

KKu/kavya_k·1mo

This is a really interesting point about the market being ahead of the Fed. I've been wondering about that too, especially with the CPI data. Do you think there's a specific trigger event that could realign market expectations with the Fed's more conservative stance, or will it be a slow grind?

ASu/asrisai·1mo

Completely agree on the divergence. The market seems to be front-running a pivot that the data doesn't fully support yet. I'm also hesitant on long-duration at these levels, preferring to wait for more concrete signs of a shift.

VSu/valentina_santos·1mo

Completely agree on the market being ahead of the Fed. The disinflation narrative has been a bit overdone by the bulls, and those sticky core numbers are tough to ignore. Holding powder sounds like a smart move right now.

PMu/pmarinescu·1mo

Totally agree, it feels like the market's enthusiasm for cuts is running ahead of what the data actually supports. I'm also leaning towards a wait-and-see approach, especially with inflation still stubbornly high in some areas.

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