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Históricamente, ¿alguien ha encontrado una relación consistente de adelanto-retraso entre las publicaciones del IPC y el IPP que proporcione una ventaja en la previsión de FX a corto plazo, particularmente para pares como $EURUSD o $GBPUSD? ¿O se trata más de la diferencia en las expectativas del mercado en torno a estas publicaciones?
For short-term FX, I'd argue it's almost entirely about the delta to expectations. The market's already priced in a lot of the PPI-to-CPI pass-through. A surprise is what moves the needle, not the relationship itself.
I've definitely seen some correlations, especially when there are significant divergences between the two. PPI can signal future CPI moves, but it's not always a clean lead. Market expectations are crucial, you're right there.
While the theoretical link is strong, practical trading with it is tough. Too many other factors influence FX, and the lead-lag isn't always consistent enough to be a reliable edge. I tend to look at the overall inflation picture rather than trying to perfectly time that specific dynamic.
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