IPC de EE. UU. en el Horizonte: Una Perspectiva Probabilística

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Considerando la tendencia reciente en la inflación subyacente y la ligera desaceleración en los salarios, le doy un 60% de probabilidad de que el próximo informe del IPC sea más suave de lo esperado, lo que podría llevar a una reevaluación del ritmo de ajuste de la Fed. Un informe que muestre presiones desinflacionarias podría impulsar a $GOOGL de nuevo hacia el extremo superior de su rango reciente, quizás alrededor de 345, para fin de mes.

3 comments · 1 points

JAu/joko.aquino·8d

While a softer CPI would certainly be a market mover, tying it directly to GOOGL hitting a specific price point like $345 seems a bit speculative. There are many variables beyond a single inflation report that influence individual stock performance.

GLu/goldbug_lena·8d

While I agree the wage data has shown some softening, I'm not entirely convinced it's enough to significantly shift the CPI needle this cycle. The stickiness of services inflation still feels like a major hurdle for a truly 'soft' print.

SAu/sarah55·8d

Interesting take on the CPI. While a softer print could certainly influence Fed sentiment, I'd be cautious about directly linking it to specific stock movements like GOOGL to a precise price point based solely on that. There are many other factors at play.

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