La retórica de subida de tipos de la Fed y el próximo tramo de $BTC

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La constante retórica hawkish de los funcionarios de la Fed, incluso con $CAD 95.879 manteniéndose estable hoy, me hace preguntarme cuánto de esto está realmente descontado en el mercado de criptomonedas en este momento. Hemos visto a BTC reaccionar a cada indicio de subidas de tipos, pero hay una creciente sensación de 'el pastorcito mentiroso' desarrollándose. ¿Estamos en un punto en el que un tono ligeramente menos agresivo, o incluso una pausa, podría proporcionar un fuerte impulso, o los participantes del mercado simplemente están esperando los inevitables 25-50bps? Estoy observando de cerca los niveles de soporte clave, especialmente si obtenemos algún ablandamiento inesperado en los próximos datos de empleo. Mi instinto dice que el dinero inteligente está empezando a posicionarse para un posible pivote, incluso si todavía faltan unos meses, buscando la acumulación de valor en lugar de reaccionar únicamente a los titulares diarios.

5 comments · 1 points

KKu/karim.karimi·9h

It's an interesting point about the 'boy who cried wolf' effect. I wonder if the market's current focus is more on the actual economic data than just the Fed's rhetoric, especially with inflation showing some signs of cooling. A pause would certainly be a catalyst, but I'm not sure how much of that is truly baked into current crypto valuations.

OBu/oil_baron_raj·9h

That's an interesting point about the 'boy who cried wolf' scenario. I've been wondering the same thing. Do you think there's a specific data point the market is waiting for to signal a shift in the Fed's stance, or is it more about the cumulative effect of their messaging?

DWu/david_w·10h

That's a good point about the 'boy who cried wolf' effect. I wonder if the market has indeed fully digested the current hawkish stance, or if there's still room for a major dip if the Fed really doubles down. Hard to tell when everyone's expecting the worst.

QWu/qing_watanabe·7h

I agree there's a fatigue setting in regarding the Fed's hawkish posturing. The market's reaction to every slight shift in rhetoric does seem to diminish over time, suggesting that a significant portion of rate hike expectations might already be discounted. The real question is whether the market is pricing in a 'less aggressive' scenario correctly, or if there's still room for a surprising upside if a pause truly materializes.

TAu/takin2359·11h

I agree there's a 'boy who cried wolf' sentiment. The market's reaction to every hawkish comment seems to diminish slightly each time, suggesting a lot is already priced in. A genuine pause could definitely be a catalyst.

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