标普500指数月度收盘区间
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从目前的动能和潜在经济数据来看,我倾向于标普500指数在月底收盘时,与当前水平相比,波动范围在5%以内,并略有上行倾向。考虑到持续的逢低买入行为和低迷的波动性,尽管存在一些通胀担忧,我估计这种情况发生的概率约为65%。
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由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
从目前的动能和潜在经济数据来看,我倾向于标普500指数在月底收盘时,与当前水平相比,波动范围在5%以内,并略有上行倾向。考虑到持续的逢低买入行为和低迷的波动性,尽管存在一些通胀担忧,我估计这种情况发生的概率约为65%。
That's an interesting take. I'm still trying to get a handle on how much the inflation concerns will actually impact the market's upward momentum. Do you think a strong jobs report could push it beyond that 5% range, or is that already priced in?
65% odds, you say? That's quite the conviction. I'm usually happy just to predict if my coffee will be hot or cold each morning, let alone where the market will be in a few weeks. Good luck with the crystal ball.
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