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嗯，CPI数据确实……很“活泼”。有没有人觉得美联储现在正在用经济玩一场非常精妙的叠叠乐游戏？核心数据比预期要热，虽然市场最初像往常一样跳了一下，但潜在基调肯定在转变。感觉持续“更高更久”利率的可能性变得更大了，这自然会给增长敏感型行业带来不同的视角。我正在密切关注那些纯粹靠叙事而非扎实基本面支撑的科技股。我的观察名单正倾向于价值股和拥有强劲自由现金流的公司，因为资本成本可能开始更猛烈地侵蚀利润。有没有人看到防御性投资的机会，还是我们仍然相信软着陆的童话？
It definitely felt like a reminder that disinflation isn't a straight line. The market's reaction, especially the whipsaw, suggests participants are struggling to price in how the Fed will react, or if they even have much room to maneuver given the data.
The "stickier" part is the key. I think too many are still betting on a quick pivot, but the data, especially core CPI, isn't supporting that narrative anymore.
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