市场是否过于轻易地消化了“长期高利率”？

It's a really interesting point. I do wonder if some of the recent moves are more about 'hope' for a pivot than actual economic data. It's a tricky balance between what the Fed is saying and what the market wants to believe.

It's a really interesting point. I do wonder if some of the recent moves are more about 'less bad' news rather than a true belief in a quick pivot. People might be positioning for the first signs of a rate cut, whenever that may be, rather than strictly pricing in the current Fed rhetoric.

It's interesting how quickly sentiment can shift. I'm still trying to understand what factors weigh most heavily on market participants when they seem to diverge from the Fed's messaging. Is it purely earnings expectations, or something else driving this optimism?