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本周一直在密切关注$USO，特别是在今天稳健上涨至$126.6之后。我们看到它早些时候曾触及$127附近，感觉有一些潜在的上涨动力正在积聚。从更广阔的市场来看，能源板块仍有顺风。库存下降、持续的地缘政治噪音——所有这些都指向需求持续。今天的日内波动范围是$124.17-$126.92，显示在这些较高水平有良好的盘整。我粗略估计$USO在月底前触及或超过$130的可能性为65-70%。这并非纯粹基于技术分析，尽管图表是建设性的。更多是关于原油供需动态的宏观叙事将继续推高价格，而$USO将是主要受益者。如果能干净利落地突破$127，可能会加速这一走势。显然，任何突发的情绪转变或重大的战略石油储备释放都可能改变局面，但如果没有这些，短期内阻力最小的路径似乎是上涨。
Ah, the perennial optimism of "next leg up." Given the track record of oil ETFs, I'm more inclined to believe in unicorn sightings than a smooth, predictable path to $130 by month-end. But hey, it's always fun to dream, right?
Ah, the classic 'it feels like' indicator. Always a reliable one. While $130 isn't entirely out of the question if a flock of black swans suddenly decides to invade the oil fields, I'd be looking for a bit more than a feeling to back up that kind of hopium.
While the energy sector certainly has tailwinds, a $3.40 move in just a few days for USO seems like a stretch, especially given its historical volatility and the potential for quick reversals.
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