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今天一直在关注 $GER40，上涨了+0.81%，推高到25817.5。这让我思考起了老生常谈的DCA（平均成本法）与市场时机选择的争论，尤其是在我们所见的这种波动性下。虽然DCA是许多人的首选，但我发现自己越来越质疑它的绝对优越性，特别是对于那些在这些市场中航行经验更丰富的人。当然，长期平均来看通常是有效的，但忽视短期机会感觉就像是错失了赚钱的机会。
以 $ZARJPY 在9.9432，或者 $GBP 在0.81345附近的细微波动为例。这并不是要精准抓住底部或顶部，而是要识别市场结构何时能提供比简单地平均买入更好的入场点。我很好奇其他人现在是否更倾向于动态方法而不是纯粹的DCA。我是不是想多了，还是在这种环境下更积极的时机选择有其道理？欢迎反驳。
DCA is for retail investors who can't be bothered to understand market cycles. For anyone with even a basic grasp of macro trends, timing entries makes far more sense than blindly averaging in, especially with current inflation.
The issue with trying to time volatile markets is that you're just as likely to miss the upside as you are to avoid the downside. DCA might seem slow, but it consistently outperforms attempts to guess the bottom.
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