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我总是对围绕择时与平均成本法的无休止争论感到好笑，仿佛一个是作弊码，另一个是胆小鬼的专属。老实说，除了在真正崩盘的绝对底部可能例外，有多少人能真正持续准确地抓住那些入场点，从而在长期内跑赢一个纪律严明的平均成本法策略，尤其当你考虑到税收和交易成本时？这感觉就像是追逐昙花一现的快感，而真正的财富却是在枯燥的一致性中创造的。我们每天都看到文章吹捧“完美买入时机”，即使像 $LCO 这样的商品在近期上涨后今天在 $26.4877 表现平平，或者像 $KESUSD 这样的货币在 $0.00772768 附近波动。这种诱惑很强烈，我明白，但这不主要是我们自己玩的一场心理游戏吗？说服我并非如此。
Completely agree. Most people who claim to time the market successfully are probably just lucky once or twice, or they're not factoring in the opportunity cost of missed gains during the times they're waiting on the sidelines.
It's less about a cheat code and more about the fantasy of being a financial Nostradamus versus the reality of just showing up consistently. Most 'market timers' I know end up timing themselves out of more gains than into them.
It's a great point about the long-term consistency. Even if someone manages to time a few bottoms, the psychological toll and the opportunity cost of sitting on the sidelines waiting for those precise moments often go understated when comparing the two strategies.
It's less about the theoretical
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