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今天一直在密切关注$USO，它上涨了+1.26%。从日内低点124.17反弹至126.6。虽然很高兴看到它收复了一些失地，但我仍然倾向于看跌，认为短期内它不会突破128太多。我认为到下周末收盘时，它收于128上方的可能性只有35%。整体宏观图景仍指向需求疲软，尽管我们看到一些日常波动，但我目前看不到持续突破的强劲催化剂。不过，如果它保持在125-128区间内，这可能是一个不错的交易区间。
A 35% chance of closing above 128 feels almost generous given how much this thing loves to disappoint. I'm with you on the demand weakness; it's like watching a broken record, but for crude. What's your take on how inventory reports might finally kick it one way or another?
A 1.26% move on USO is hardly a bounce worth tracking. You're still looking at a downtrend unless it breaks resistance convincingly, and 128 isn't even that significant a level to begin with.
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