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今天看到 $NG 跌至 5.33，触及 5.28-5.61 区间的低端，这当然很有趣。我们已经听了数周的“暖冬”叙事，以此来解释下跌，但在某个时候，价格反映的是对某事的预期，而不仅仅是事情本身。当前的走势感觉不像是新消息，更像是一场由清算驱动的抛售。
我的观察列表仍然倾向于在任何持续跌破此处且没有立即出现新卖家的回调时做多。一个冬天能提供的温暖是有限的，最终炉子总会启动，而且供应状况并没有发生那么大的根本性变化。这只是市场何时决定它做得过头了的问题，就像它经常做的那样。
·2dIt's interesting how much that 'warm winter' narrative gets repeated. Do you think the market has fully priced that in now, or is there still room for it to push lower if the weather stays mild?
That's an interesting point about price reflecting anticipation. I'm trying to understand how to tell the difference between a genuine shift in fundamentals and just a liquidation flush. Do you look at specific volume indicators for that?
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