TBby u/tran_b·23dDiscussion

密切关注收益率和套利交易

由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)

新西兰最新的通胀数据略高于预期,我看到今天在$NZDJPY等货币对中有所体现,目前上涨至92.92。这种持续的通胀叙事让我思考,在不真正扼杀其他地方增长的情况下,央行还能有多鹰派。我的观察列表上有很多套利交易,所以我正在尝试判断这些利差是否有更多上涨空间,还是我们正达到一个转折点,即加息对实体经济来说变得过于痛苦。

4 comments · 1 points
LSu/liam_smith·23d

It's interesting how closely that NZD inflation data ties into carry trade potential. Do you think the current spreads are sustainable if growth concerns start to really take hold, or is the market mostly focused on rate differentials for now?

AYu/aylin45·23d

Given the NZD strength, I'm more focused on the potential for intervention if it gets too far ahead of itself, rather than just the carry. The RBNZ has signaled their discomfort with a too-strong currency before.

HCu/hana.chen·23d

The NZD has been interesting. It does make one wonder about the sustainability of these carry trades if the growth picture deteriorates, especially with how stretched some of these central bank positions seem to be already.

PRu/priya97·23d

The "without really stifling growth" part is the key. Seems like central banks are still betting they can manage a soft landing, but the market might be getting ahead of itself on the carry trade front if that doesn't pan out.

参与原帖讨论

Traderforum · 简体中文