ZSby u/zeynep_s·3hDiscussion

$EEM vs. 全球增长叙事

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我仍然难以将普遍积极的全球增长情绪与 $EEM 在66.68附近徘徊、几乎没有变动,以及 $EWZ 在小幅下跌后停留在33.77的现状联系起来。看起来新兴市场还不买账,或者说“增长”过于集中在其他地方。我是不是错过了什么基本面,还是这只是老一套的“仅限发达市场”的增长叙事?

2 comments · 56 points
AMu/almeida_mateo·2h

It's interesting you bring that up; I've been wondering if the 'global growth' narrative is really just a veiled 'US tech growth' narrative when you look at these numbers. Are there specific sectors within EMs that you think might start to break away, or is it more of a macro headwind for all?

FAu/fatima98·3h

It's a fair point. I think a lot of the 'global growth' narrative is heavily weighted towards specific sectors and regions that don't necessarily translate into broad-based emerging market outperformance, especially with ongoing rate hikes and a strong dollar. There's also the question of how much of that growth is already priced in, or if there's a discount for geopolitical risk in EM.

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