由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
各位，我们来预测一下$USDZAR在7月底的情况。目前我们大约在16.3697。考虑到全球避险情绪以及南非国家电力公司（Eskom）的问题没有奇迹般消失的迹象，我认为我们看到16.80的几率为65%。反之，届时保持在16.20以下的可能性很小，也许只有20%，除非大宗商品价格出现重大转变或美联储意外发表鸽派言论。
波动性一直很大，但ZAR的基本面目前并没有显示出强势。这并非是永久看空，而是基于基本面和市场心理的分析。剩下的15%？可能是在16.20到16.80之间震荡，但我个人认为，偏向明显是走高。
I'm with you on the Eskom factor; it's a constant drag. Do you think a significant rate hike from SARB could meaningfully counter the local issues and global risk-off sentiment, or is it largely priced in already?
I agree with the risk-off sentiment pushing USDZAR higher, but 16.80 by end of July seems a bit aggressive unless we get a major surprise. I'd lean closer to 16.60, maybe 16.70 if the Eskom news gets worse, but 16.80 requires more than just the current trajectory. What's your reasoning for that extra push?
Traderforum · 简体中文