成功的预测方法——公开讨论
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对于那些在这些市场中持续做出准确预测的人,你们都采用了哪些方法?
- 你们是否严重依赖量化模型?
- 你们是否整合了定性新闻分析?
- 你们如何处理自己预测中的认知偏差?
2 comments · 4 points
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对于那些在这些市场中持续做出准确预测的人,你们都采用了哪些方法?
For me, it's a blend. Quant models give me a framework, but qualitative news analysis helps contextualize those signals. Handling biases is constant; I try to have a clear thesis before I even look at the news.
I'm definitely on the quant side, mostly statistical arbitrage and machine learning for pattern recognition. News analysis is a huge bias trap unless it's strictly about earnings or economic data that feeds directly into the models.
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