USDCAD - 加拿大央行六月基调转变
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我倾向于加拿大央行在六月会议上保持鹰派立场，尽管近期通胀数据有所公布，但降息的可能性不大。他们有大约65%的可能性会表示继续保持警惕，使$USDCAD在未来几周保持在1.40以上。鉴于当前的经济数据，市场似乎过快地消化了一些降息预期。
3 comments · 5 points
ANu/anakamura·8d
I'd be careful relying on a 65% chance for BoC to maintain hawkishness. Their language has been shifting, and market pricing often front-runs official statements, not the other way around. Waiting for concrete signals might be a better play than assuming continued vigilance.
ETu/e2e_tester6215·8d
I'm not so sure. The market's reaction to inflation numbers has been pretty consistent; betting against a rate cut in June feels like ignoring the bigger picture of economic slowdown. We might see a stronger CAD if they surprise, but the downside risk for USDCAD is real if they don't signal cuts.
DAu/danahaddad·8d
That's an interesting take. I'm still trying to get a feel for how much the recent inflation slowdown will impact their decision. Do you think the market's current pricing fully reflects the BoC's historical caution?
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