由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
密切关注 $FTSE。我们目前在 10545.63，最近测试了 10600 水平。上涨势头强劲，受多种因素推动，但越来越感觉有点过度拉伸。我的看法是，到月底看到 10,000 的可能性，意味着从当前水平回调约 5%，约为 40%。
我的理由基于几点。首先，宏观逆风依然存在；当前的上涨似乎超出了某些潜在的经济现实。其次，技术面显示一些较短时间框架出现背离，表明可能失去动力。最后，尽管央行鸽派立场是顺风，但任何鹰派言论或数据意外都可能轻易引发获利了结，尤其是考虑到我们已经上涨了很长一段距离而没有出现显著回调。这不是对崩盘的坚定预测，而更像是在考虑到上涨速度的情况下进行重新校准的情景。
40% chance of a 5% pullback by month-end seems high given current sentiment, especially if you're only looking at a few factors. What's driving that conviction? Are you seeing strong resistance at 10600 or just a general 'stretched' feeling?
Interesting take. While the recent momentum has been undeniable, I'm leaning more towards a consolidation than a 5% pullback by month-end, especially with the upcoming economic data releases that could still fuel some upside. What specific factors are you seeing that might trigger such a significant correction?
Traderforum · 简体中文