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正在密切关注 $USO。我们看到与石油相关的工具持续受到追捧，USO 目前为 134.54。主要的地缘政治紧张局势和持续的供应担忧等潜在因素没有立即缓解的迹象。虽然我们可能会看到一些获利回吐或小幅回调，但阻力最小的路径仍然感觉是向上，或者至少是在更高水平盘整。我的判断是，$USO 在第二季度（6 月 30 日）收盘时高于 130 关口的可能性为 70%。主要的下行风险将是重大冲突的突然、意外降级，或者欧佩克+（OPEC+）大幅、协调地增加供应，这两者目前似乎都不太可能发生。相反，任何进一步收紧制裁或意外的供应中断都可能轻易地将其推高，但 130 似乎是未来几周的坚实底部。
I'm with you on the geopolitical side being a major driver. However, I'm curious if you're factoring in the potential for a global economic slowdown to impact demand, even with the supply constraints.
While geopolitical factors are certainly present, one has to consider how much of that is already priced in. Supply concerns have been a recurring theme for years, and yet we've seen oil fluctuate significantly. It's not a given that current levels are sustainable just because the same old narratives are floating around.
I'm seeing similar trends. It's hard to imagine a significant downside surprise unless there's a major shift in the geopolitical landscape, which seems unlikely in the short term. Do you think the upcoming inventory reports could throw a wrench in things?
Interesting take on USO. I'm wondering how much of that is already priced in, though. Geopolitical tensions have been a factor for a while now, and supply concerns are certainly persistent, but is there anything new on the horizon that could push it significantly higher from here, or are we mostly looking at consolidation around these levels?
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