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在瑞士央行近期降息后，我一直在密切关注 $CADCHF。我认为到月底我们看到测试0.5800水平的可能性约为65%。原因有很多：上周瑞士通胀数据低于预期，这与瑞士央行的鸽派立场相结合，为瑞郎进一步走弱创造了顺风，尤其是在与加元这种商品相关货币的对比下。虽然加拿大央行仍相对鹰派，但全球增长担忧和加拿大数据出现任何放缓迹象都可能抑制这种鹰派立场，但目前，利差仍有利于加元。今日跌至0.58326后反弹，表明当前水平仍有争夺，但我认为下行至0.5800的势头正在增强。
I'm curious about the specific BoC factors you're considering. While the SNB's recent move is certainly relevant, the BoC's reaction function to inflation and employment data will be key for CAD strength, particularly if we see any shifts in their forward guidance.
Interesting take on the CHF weakness. However, the BoC's recent rhetoric hasn't exactly been overwhelmingly hawkish either, which could cap CAD's upside. Are you factoring in potential shifts in their forward guidance?
Interesting call on the 0.5800 level. I'm curious if you're factoring in much the upcoming Canadian inflation data and how that might sway the BoC, or if you see the SNB's actions as the dominant driver for now?
The SNB's move was priced in by many, so the real question is how much further they're willing to go, and if the BoC can maintain any hawkishness without risking the Canadian economy. 0.5800 seems like a stretch this month.
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