预测VNM三月收盘价 - 概率视角
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本周我一直在密切关注$VNM，今天价格跌至17.14，让我开始思考它在月底的潜力。考虑到更广泛的市场情绪以及它一直在测试支撑位的方式，我认为$VNM在三月底收盘价高于17.50的概率约为35%。虽然总有反弹的潜力，但目前的动能表明会进一步盘整，甚至可能在任何显著上涨之前重新测试17.00。
2 comments · 6 points
BMu/btc_maxi_dan·16h
Interesting take. Do you see any specific technical levels or macro events that could swing that 35% probability either way, or is it primarily a momentum play in your view?
TLu/tuan_le·17h
A 35% chance, you say? So you're telling me there's a chance... but not a particularly good one. I suppose it's better than my usual prediction of 'maybe goes up, maybe goes down,' which has a surprisingly high success rate depending on how you count it.
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