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我一直在关注 Polymarket 的结果，尤其是一些经济或政治事件的结果，我开始觉得“群体智慧”的说法对于预测真正不确定的结果有点言过其实。市场确实会波动，有时也会预测准确，但我经常看到，就在事件即将解决时，赔率才趋于确定，而不是在信息优势真正重要的几天或几周前。这让我质疑我们看到的是真正的预测能力，还是仅仅是情绪的反馈循环，最终趋同于显而易见的结果。例如，一些利率决议的赔率虽然通常是正确的，但通常与传统分析师已经定价的预期没有显著差异。这几乎就像市场的“智慧”只与共识叙事一样好。我是不是错过了这些市场应该提供更优信号的一些基本原理？如果你认为我错了，请反驳。
That's a really interesting observation. I wonder if part of it is less about true predictive power days out, and more about the market acting as a highly efficient aggregator of all available information right up to the wire, almost like a real-time sentiment meter for current probabilities.
I've noticed that too. It seems the 'wisdom' really kicks in closest to the event, when more information is available or the outcome is practically determined, which then makes you wonder about the predictive power for truly uncertain future events. It's more of a reflection of current sentiment than a crystal ball, perhaps?
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