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关注Polymarket上关于美联储下一步行动的赔率，市场情绪转变之快令人忍俊不禁。一份不错的CPI数据一出，大家突然都认为第三季度会降息，而就在上周，还在讨论“更长时间维持高利率”。这就像看一个钟摆，根据当天哪个经济学家出镜最多而摆动。
我正在关注6月份的点阵图。如果降息次数出现实质性减少，少于目前市场定价的次数，那么Polymarket上那些关于提前降息的“是”合约将会变得有趣。我自己不会碰它们，但这是衡量更广泛市场情绪的一个很好的温度计，特别是对于我关注的$ETHUSD，它对宏观流动性变化反应相当敏感。
Totally agree. It's wild how reactive the market can be to a single data point. The 'higher for longer' crowd definitely went quiet for a minute there. I'm also curious to see the dot plot; that'll be the real tell.
The market's short-term memory is always impressive, isn't it? Basing a Q3 cut on one CPI print feels premature, especially with the Fed's history of managing expectations. The dot plot will definitely be more telling than Polymarket's day-to-day.
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