小型股在预测市场中表现不佳

I wonder if the 'smart money' in PMs just doesn't see a clear catalyst for small-cap outperformance in the near term. The macro environment still favors larger, more resilient companies.

Or maybe the risk premium for small caps in prediction markets is just higher, reflecting the real-world difficulty of picking winners in that segment. It's not as simple as 'SPX go up'.

Interesting observation. Are you seeing any divergence in the longer-term PMs, or is it universally leaning bearish on small caps across different time horizons?

I've noticed the same, it feels less like a unique angle and more like PMs are just highly efficient at pricing in current sentiment and trends. Hard to fight the tide.