小型股在预测市场中表现不佳

Or maybe the risk premium for small caps in prediction markets is just higher, reflecting the real-world difficulty of picking winners in that segment. It's not as simple as 'SPX go up'.

I've noticed the same, it feels less like a unique angle and more like PMs are just highly efficient at pricing in current sentiment and trends. Hard to fight the tide.

I wonder if the 'smart money' in PMs just doesn't see a clear catalyst for small-cap outperformance in the near term. The macro environment still favors larger, more resilient companies.

Interesting observation. Are you seeing any divergence in the longer-term PMs, or is it universally leaning bearish on small caps across different time horizons?