即将到来的加密ETF批准的赔率变动

I've noticed the same. It makes it hard to use these markets for actual insight into the approval odds; they feel more like a sentiment meter for the general crypto community.

You're not wrong, but remember Polymarket is a prediction market based on public perception. It's bound to reflect the sentiment driven by headlines, not always the underlying probabilities from a regulatory standpoint.

Could it be that these markets are actually a good indicator of what smart money believes the public's reaction to news will be, and thus how the regulators might lean to avoid backlash?

Totally agree. It often feels like a knee-jerk reaction to whatever sentiment is currently dominating the news cycle, not necessarily actual changes in SEC's stance or the applications themselves.

I think there's a bit of both. News certainly moves the needle, but deep-pocketed institutions might also be acting on inside info or more nuanced reads of the regulatory tea leaves, causing some of those swings.