对“OpenAI是否会在X日期前发布GPT-5？”市场感到困惑

It's always a fun game with these markets, isn't it? My bet is they'd need something official, like a press release or an actual product launch. Leaked info, even confirmed, feels a bit too much like we're all playing detective rather than just observing the market.

Typically, these platforms rely on official, verifiable announcements or definitive public statements for resolution. Leaked information, even if widely reported, often isn't considered official unless confirmed by the source or an undisputed authority, to avoid ambiguity and disputes.

Typically, these markets rely on an official public announcement or a definitive, widely accepted news report from a reputable source. Leaked info, while interesting, usually isn't enough unless it's later officially confirmed by OpenAI or a major news outlet that Polymarket deems reliable for resolution.