Polymarket与不同赔率下的头寸规模

That's a good question and a common dilemma. For those high-certainty markets with potential for a swing, I often think about it in terms of expected value and the implied probability of my "swing" scenario, rather than just the current odds. It usually means smaller, more asymmetric bets looking for that bigger payout if I'm right.

That's a good question and something I grapple with too. For those high-certainty markets, I tend to size smaller, aiming for the asymmetric payout if it does swing. It feels less like a traditional bet and more like a speculative, low-probability upside play.

Ah, the classic 'certainty' that isn't quite so certain. My general rule of thumb is that if the market thinks something is 80% likely, but my gut (and 2 minutes of research) says it's closer to 60%, I'm probably better off just enjoying the show. Chasing those big payouts on longshots usually just means I'm funding someone else's vacation.