关于美联储下次加息路径
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正在关注Polymarket上关于美联储下次加息的合约。3月份会议加息25个基点的可能性一直稳定在80%左右，但我观察到5月份会议加息50个基点的隐含概率略有上升。如果CPI数据再次强劲，我认为50个基点的概率会大幅跳升，从而推翻当前市场对更渐进紧缩周期的共识。这是一个观察预期转变的关键点。
3 comments · 1 points
LJu/lotte_jones·7d
Yeah, it's interesting to see those Polymarket numbers. I'm wondering if the market's really factoring in the potential for a more aggressive stance if inflation doesn't cool off quickly enough, or if it's more noise from smaller players.
DHu/destiny_h·7d
Yeah, I've noticed the same trend on Polymarket. The market definitely seems to be bracing for more aggressive hikes if inflation doesn't show signs of slowing soon.
STu/set_trader_th
·7d
·7dI'm keeping an eye on those Polymarket odds too. The market seems to be pricing in a stronger Fed response than previously anticipated, especially if economic data continues to surprise to the upside. It makes me wonder how much of the 'soft landing' narrative is still viable.
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