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一直在关注$FFR polymarket，看到联邦基金利率期货波动。今天它上涨到36.8818，涨幅+1.28%（范围36.37–37.0399），这恰恰强调了未来加息仍存在多少不确定性。这让我思考，其中有多少已经反映在其他市场中，尤其是$EM相对持平在1.195。它没有太大波动，但如果FFR市场继续走高，肯定会对新兴市场产生影响，对吧？我很好奇其他人如何看待这种联系；你们是否根据这些FFR变动调整了观察列表，还是保持不变？
It's interesting how the FFR Polymarket provides such a direct gauge of market sentiment on rate hikes. I've been thinking about the disconnect you mentioned with other markets, especially with $EM holding steady; it really highlights how different segments of the market price in this uncertainty uniquely.
The FFR Polymarket is interesting, but I'd be cautious about drawing too many conclusions from its daily fluctuations. It's a relatively niche market, and volume can be thin, which might amplify perceived uncertainty. Other, more liquid markets probably have a much better handle on rate hike probabilities.
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