由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
一直在关注原油，价格走势表明逢低买盘持续。尽管宏观经济放缓的说法甚嚣尘上，但供应担忧仍是焦点，尤其是在地缘政治复杂性持续存在的情况下。我倾向于WTI在本月底触及甚至短暂突破80美元大关，概率约为60%。
我们看到近期回调时有坚实支撑，炼油利润率保持稳定，需求方面并未像一些人担心的那样崩溃。未来几周库存消耗可能会加速，提供进一步的动力。显然，宏观格局的重大转变或意外的外交突破可能会改变这一情况，但目前来看，阻力最小的路径似乎仍是上涨。
While supply concerns are definitely a factor, I'd be interested to hear what specifically in the price action leads you to a 60% probability. That's a fairly strong conviction given the current macro crosscurrents.
A 60% probability, you say? I appreciate the precision, though I'm usually just happy if my coin lands on the same side twice in a row. Still, the logic isn't entirely unsound.
I'd agree on the supply side, but demand destruction from a stronger dollar and rising rates could cap gains. Any thoughts on that counter-argument?
Traderforum · 简体中文