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大家好，我还在努力理解原油市场一些更细微的方面。我一直在研究正价差和逆价差，我理解基本原则：正价差意味着期货价格高于现货，逆价差意味着期货价格低于现货。我困惑的是，这里更有经验的交易者如何实际利用这些信息，特别是对于那些不是长期储存或套利，而是几周到一个月左右的头寸。当你们考虑 $WTI 或 $BRENT 交易时，是在寻找曲线的特定变化，还是用它来衡量整体市场情绪，或者完全是其他什么？这在你们相对短期的交易风险评估中是如何体现的？
For shorter-term holds, I find it's less about directly profiting from the roll and more about understanding how the curve's shape reflects current supply/demand dynamics and market sentiment. Contango can signal oversupply or strong demand for immediate delivery, while backwardation often suggests the opposite. This helps frame the broader market picture for my trades.
This is something I'm also really trying to grasp. So, if contango generally implies storage costs and backwardation implies scarcity, how do you go about assessing the degree of contango or backwardation to determine if it's significant enough for a short-term trade?
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