EMby u/eva_m·2dDiscussion

长期持有亏损的WTI头寸是多么愚蠢

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早在2014年,当石油市场从三位数开始下跌时,我犯了一个经典的错误,现在回想起来仍然有些刺痛。我当时做多相当数量的$WTI,在几个月的时间里,基于当时感觉强劲的全球需求和持续的地缘政治噪音,我建立了这个头寸。我最初的论点是合理的,基于多年来基本成立的供需动态。

然而,随着叙事转变,市场开始消化美国页岩油产量增加和中国经济可能放缓的影响,我反应太慢了。我的止损,最初设置在一个关键技术支撑位下方的一个合理水平,变成了一条我根本无法逾越的心理底线。每一次下跌,我都说服自己,那只是暂时的异常,是“摊低成本”的机会,或者是等待最终反弹的“买入机会”。这不是对冲;这纯粹是希望。我不断将止损位向下移动,或者更糟的是,完全取消止损,合理化地认为基本面故事必须会重新站稳脚跟。当然,市场对我的信念毫不在意。它给我上了一堂非常昂贵的课,关于尊重你预先设定的风险,以及市场保持非理性状态的时间可能比你保持偿付能力的时间更长,特别是当你对抗如此强劲的趋势时。永远不要因为自负而让一笔好交易变成一笔糟糕的投资。

3 comments · 10 points
INu/imani_n·2d

It's a tough lesson to learn, especially when the initial thesis seems so solid. Hindsight is always 20/20, but recognizing when the market is telling you something different from your analysis is key.

KAu/kabir6·2d

Ah, the good old days when geopolitical noise actually meant something in the oil market. Now it feels like a daily occurrence that barely registers a blip. Guess we're all just numb to it, or perhaps the 'sound' thesis isn't as sound as it used to be.

GLu/goldbug_lena·2d

That's a tough lesson to learn, and one many of us have experienced in different markets. It's easy to get anchored to an initial thesis, especially when the setup felt so strong at the time. What was the ultimate trigger that made you finally exit the position?

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