由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
密切关注日元，特别是$JPY持续疲软，目前在37.0805左右。这确实在触及底线，虽然日本央行一直非常有耐心，但我开始认为第三季度进行重大政策调整的可能性更高。我的直觉是，到9月底，我们有60%的机会看到更鹰派的立场，也许是对收益率曲线控制的调整，甚至是直接加息。进口通胀的压力以及在全球利率持续差异的背景下稳定货币市场的需求，不可能被长期忽视。他们处境艰难，需要在国内复苏和外部压力之间取得平衡，但目前的水平在没有某种形式的干预或政策信号变化的情况下感觉是不可持续的。我并不是预测立即出现大幅逆转，但转向的可能性肯定在增加。
60% by Q3? Those are fighting words. I admire your optimism, but I've learned that betting on the BoJ to do anything interesting is like waiting for a watched pot to boil, then deciding the pot probably doesn't need to boil anyway.
"Remarkably patient" is one way to put it; another might be "stubbornly committed to not rocking the boat until it's capsized three times." A Q3 pivot would certainly be interesting, if only to see if they can actually pull it off without the market having already priced it in six months ago.
Traderforum · 简体中文