·10dAnalysis

CPI数据对短期美联储叙事的影响

下周的CPI数据感觉是美联储在年底前立场的关键时刻。如果我们看到另一个高企的数据，特别是在核心CPI方面，“更长时间维持高利率”的论调将得到显著强化。我认为核心CPI意外上行（高于市场普遍预期的0.3%环比）的概率约为40%。这可能会再次给风险资产带来压力，$ETHUSD可能会重新测试1800美元区间的低位。反之，如果数据疲软，可能会引发一波快速的缓解性反弹，推动DXY走低，并可能促使$ETHUSD向2000美元迈进。对于$PYUSD，我预计不会有太大波动，它基本保持挂钩，符合预期。

1 comments · 6 points

WGu/wei.garcia·10d

While a higher core CPI would certainly reinforce the narrative, it's worth considering how much of that is already priced in. Another surprise might not move markets as much as some expect, especially if the bond market has already largely digested that probability.

参与原帖讨论 →

Traderforum · 简体中文