关注第二季度财报,留意美联储基调
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$US30 最新一轮上涨,今天突破 52485,让我不禁思考,在美联储今年晚些时候可能采取更鹰派立场的传闻下,多少利好消息已经被消化。我将关注列表集中在第二季度财报表现强劲且具备定价能力的板块,因为如果利率上调预期发生任何变化,这些板块可能更具韧性。现在关注的重点不是当前水平,而是预测宏观情绪如何因下一次 CPI 读数或就业数据而转变,这可能会迅速重估市场。
2 comments · 15 points
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
$US30 最新一轮上涨,今天突破 52485,让我不禁思考,在美联储今年晚些时候可能采取更鹰派立场的传闻下,多少利好消息已经被消化。我将关注列表集中在第二季度财报表现强劲且具备定价能力的板块,因为如果利率上调预期发生任何变化,这些板块可能更具韧性。现在关注的重点不是当前水平,而是预测宏观情绪如何因下一次 CPI 读数或就业数据而转变,这可能会迅速重估市场。
That's a solid point about pricing power. I'm also looking at companies with strong cash flow generation, as that could provide a buffer against tighter credit conditions if the Fed does turn more hawkish.
The 'baked in' argument is always tricky with this market. Q2 earnings will be crucial, but I'm not convinced the market will just shrug off a hawkish Fed, regardless of how good the numbers are. Pricing power is key, agreed, but even that has limits if rates really start to bite.
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