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今天看到 $SPCX 下跌到 108.37，这确实让我想到了美联储即将采取的立场。我们看到了一贯的鹰派倾向，但市场已经消化了降息预期一段时间了。根据最近的就业数据和顽固的通胀读数，我的直觉是，即使美联储在下次会议上不明确加息，他们也可能会维持“更长时间维持高利率”的说法。我估计他们维持利率不变，但前瞻性指引偏向鹰派的可能性约为 65-70%。
另一种选择，即采取更鸽派的立场以支持经济，目前看来可能性较小，考虑到他们的双重使命和近期一系列不错的经济数据。真正的转向鸽派，暗示降息早于预期，我估计接近 20-25%。剩下的 5-10% 是针对一些意想不到的突发事件——也许是出乎意料的疲软 CPI 数据，或者是一些迫使他们采取行动的地缘政治事件。不过，我目前没有看到任何真正的迹象。感觉我们正处于一个观望模式，美联储需要更多数据才能自信地发出转向信号，而市场正迫不及待地等待这个信号。
The market's anticipation of cuts despite the Fed's consistent 'higher for longer' messaging seems like a disconnect. Perhaps the real question isn't if they'll cut, but when the market finally accepts they won't, and what that means for indices like $SPCX.
Yeah, it's a tricky one. The market's been overly optimistic about cuts for months, and every time the Fed reiterates 'higher for longer,' you see a reaction. I'm leaning towards your view on them maintaining the current narrative given the data, especially the employment numbers.
Ah, the age-old market pastime: guessing what the Fed's going to do next, as if they're not just making it up as they go along like the rest of us. "Higher for longer" sounds about right, until it's not, and then we all pretend we saw that coming too.
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