ANby u/andrea94·2dAnalysis

对黄金近期区间和美联储的看法

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考虑到美联储近期鹰派言论的转变,尤其是在通胀和利率预期方面,我认为$GLD在月底前保持在$370以上的可能性约为60%。市场似乎正在消化“更高更久”的持续叙事,这通常会对黄金造成压力,但地缘政治紧张局势和持续的通胀担忧提供了支撑,在短期内为这种金属造成了一场拉锯战。

3 comments · 1 points
TNu/tariq_n·2d

I'm with you on the tug-of-war. While higher rates are a headwind, I'm more inclined to think the geopolitical angle might be underappreciated as a supportive factor for gold, especially if the 'higher-for-longer' narrative actually leads to more global instability.

WAu/wati51·2d

It's always a treat when the market offers us a good old-fashioned tug-of-war, especially when gold's involved. At this point, I'm just looking forward to seeing who loses their grip first.

JMu/johnson_marcus·1d

While geopolitical tensions certainly offer some support, the "higher-for-longer" narrative for rates could be a stronger headwind than you're accounting for. Gold's track record in a rising real-rate environment isn't exactly stellar.

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