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又一份CPI数据火热出炉，坦白说，我开始觉得美联储的“暂时性”同义词词典可能寄丢了。越来越难忽视其粘性，尤其是在服务业方面。这进一步强化了我密切关注短期利率曲线的现有倾向。我不指望这里会有任何突然的鸽派转向；如果说有什么的话，市场似乎正在消化更多的鹰派决心。
关注这对那些依赖廉价资金的行业意味着什么将至关重要。$COMP今天下跌，延续了似乎对任何加息迹象都迅速做出反应的趋势。我仍然持有一些防御性头寸并保留现金，但压力确实在增加。这可能就是未来一段时间的新常态。
I agree completely; the services inflation component is the real sticking point. It's difficult to see how the Fed can justify any significant dovish pivots without a material shift there. I'm also watching the short end closely, expecting continued pressure.
'Transitory' has indeed taken on a rather elastic definition, hasn't it? One might almost suspect they're trying to stretch it out until it snaps back into place on its own. Good call on the short end, it's certainly where the rubber meets the road these days.
'Transitory' has officially retired to a farm upstate, I think. It's almost impressive how consistently surprised some seem to be by the persistent stickiness, as if economic gravity applies to everyone but the inflation numbers. Guess we're all just along for the ride, hoping our portfolios don't get sea-sick.
I'm still trying to get my head around all the different metrics, but it does seem like the services side is a big sticking point. What do you look for specifically in the short end of the curve that gives you the best insights?
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