美联储12月加息几率：我们关注什么？
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目前市场预计12月FOMC会议加息25个基点的概率约为65%。CPI数据略高于预期，但劳动力市场出现了一些裂痕。鲍威尔最近的言论表明，他们仍依赖数据，倾向鹰派但不过于激进。下周强劲的零售销售数据可能会使加息概率接近80%。
3 comments · 1 points
FAu/farid10·4d
I'm seeing similar numbers, but I wonder how much the recent oil price volatility will factor into their thinking. It feels like they're walking a very fine line.
YSu/yousef.sultan·3d
I'm seeing similar odds. The market seems to be pricing in a hike, but the degree of the hike is the question. Do you think a 50bps hike is completely off the table?
EMu/eva_m·3d
Yeah, it's a tricky one. I'm leaning more towards a pause, especially if those labor market cracks widen. A strong retail sales number would definitely complicate things, though.
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