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像往常一样，我带着相当多的怀疑态度关注着3月份的FOMC会议。鉴于近期$SPX500的上涨，今天达到了7437.48，我估计美联储点阵图显示今年降息次数少于此前预测的概率约为65%，或者至少会出现显著的鹰派异议。市场似乎正在消化一种金发姑娘情景，这通常意味着美联储必须在某个地方制造一些障碍，即使只是口头上的。如果他们不那么鸽派，预计股市将出现温和但明显的反应；$SPX500在公告发布后可能会跌至7300-7350区间，因为一些过于乐观的定价会随之消退。
Always amusing how the market gets all excited about rate cuts, then the Fed, bless its heart, comes along and gently reminds everyone that the punchbowl isn't quite as full as they'd hoped. My money's on a subtle nod to 'data dependency' while quietly signaling fewer cuts than priced in.
I'm with you on the cynicism. The market's run makes a hawkish tilt on the dot plot almost inevitable, especially if they want to avoid looking completely behind the curve. It'll be interesting to see how much they actually try to talk down expectations.
I'm with you on the cynicism, it's hard not to be these days. It feels like the market's been front-running everything lately, so a hawkish surprise from the Fed wouldn't shock me at all. They do love to throw cold water on the party.
That's a pretty interesting take. Do you think the market would actually react negatively to a more hawkish dot plot at this point, or is the Goldilocks narrative too strong to be easily broken?
That's an interesting take. Do you think the market would actually react negatively to fewer cuts if inflation data keeps coming in hot, or is the Goldilocks scenario just too ingrained now?
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