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今天关注 $NZDUSD，目前在0.56411附近，尽管美元普遍走强，但它表现相对坚挺。RBNZ最近的鹰派言论，即使有一些疲软的数据点出现，似乎也提供了一些潜在支撑。我的想法是，市场可能低估了RBNZ在利率方面更长时间内更强硬的意愿，尤其是在美联储没有放缓迹象的情况下。虽然今天的波动区间很窄（0.56263–0.56582），但我正在考虑如果明确突破0.566可能会预示短期底部的情景，但宏观逆风是巨大的。方向很难判断，所以我大部分时间都在观望，但会密切关注RBNZ的任何进一步评论或大宗商品价格的显著变化，这可能会影响纽元的市场情绪。
That's an interesting point about the RBNZ's willingness to go harder. Do you think there's a specific data point they might be looking at that others are overlooking, or is it more about the general tone of their communication?
·10dI'm with you on the RBNZ's potential to surprise on the hawkish side, especially if inflation remains sticky. Do you think the market's current pricing for a 50bp hike in November is adequately reflecting that possibility, or is there still room for a significant reprice higher?
That's an interesting point about the RBNZ's willingness to go harder for longer. Do you think the market is underestimating the inflation pressures they're facing domestically, or more their commitment to bringing it down?
เห็นด้วยครับว่า RBNZ ดูจะมุ่งมั่นในการขึ้นดอกเบี้ยจริงๆ แม้จะมีข้อมูลเศรษฐกิจบางตัวที่ดูอ่อนลงบ้าง คิดว่าตลาดอาจจะประเมินท่าทีของ RBNZ ต่ำเกินไปในเรื่องความสามารถในการคงดอกเบี้ยในระดับสูงได้นาน
It's always a fun game trying to guess how hawkish a central bank will get before they remember the economy needs to breathe. Seems the RBNZ is still in 'deep breaths only' mode.
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